[minutes of internal morning meeting of SMM aluminum] spot rising water gradually rises aluminum prices to maintain strong volatility

8.28 minutes of SMM internal aluminum morning meeting

Trading: yesterday, aluminum prices were strong inside and weak outside. Lun Aluminum closed down 0.42% at US $1760 / ton, while Shanghai Aluminium closed at 14285 yuan / ton, up 40 yuan / ton, up 0.28%. The US Index remained at a relative high of 98.009.

Macro: 1) in terms of data, the annual profit rate of industrial enterprises above the size of China in July (%), the previous value:-3.1, published: 2.6. National Bureau of Statistics: from January to July, the total profits of the mining industry totaled 335.44 billion yuan, an increase of 4.2 percent over the same period last year; the total profits of the manufacturing industry totaled 2.87737 trillion yuan, down 3.4 percent; and the total profits of the electricity, heat, gas, and water production and supply industries totaled 284.89 billion yuan, an increase of 10.6 percent. 2) the Conference Board Consumer confidence Index for August, previous value: 135.7, expected: 129, released: 135.1. In August, the Conference Board consumer confidence index beat expectations, lower than the previous value, and gold prices fell in the short term. 3) on August 26, the standing Committee of the National people's Congress adopted the Resources tax Law of the people's Republic of China, which will come into effect on September 1, 2020.

Fundamentals: 1) according to data released by the General Administration of Customs, China exported 22600 tons of aluminum doors and windows and their frames in July 2019, an increase of 6.15 percent over the same period last year and a decrease of 0.77 percent from the previous month. Among them, the top five countries for export of aluminum doors and windows and their frames in July this year were Australia, the United States, Hong Kong, the United Kingdom and Vietnam. 2) in July 2019, the export volume of aluminum profiles and bars was 90500 tons, an increase of 2.69 per cent over the same period last year and 2.78 per cent over the previous month. 3) recently, the domestic alumina price has stabilized and recovered slightly, which is still between 2430 yuan and 2530 yuan / ton, and the FOB price of Australian alumina has dropped to less than US $300 / ton. 4) it is reported that some time ago, due to the typhoon, Shandong Binzhou, Weifang and other downstream aluminum profile factory production has been affected for a short time, suspended production for 2 to 4 days.

Spot end: yesterday morning, the transaction price of Wuxi market in Shanghai was between 14280 and 14290 yuan / ton, between 30 yuan and 40 yuan / ton, nearly 30 yuan / ton higher than the previous day. The spot price in Hangzhou area was between 14290 and 14310 yuan / ton, and the aluminum price continued to rise after 11: 00. The spot prices in Shanghai and Wuxi began to concentrate around 14300 yuan / ton, and the water rose between 20 and 40 yuan / ton on the counter-plate. The spot price in Hangzhou area was between 14290 and 14310 yuan / ton, and the aluminum price continued to rise after 11: 00. The spot prices in Shanghai and Wuxi began to concentrate around 14280 yuan / ton and between 20 yuan and 40 yuan / ton. Yesterday, the market supply was more abundant, a large household led the receipt of more than 10,000 tons, the holder shipped actively, but with the continuous rise in aluminum prices, the willingness to ship before noon was slightly convergent, the middleman was active to reverse the goods, and the willingness to receive the goods increased unabated, and the two sides were able to trade. Downstream on-demand procurement yesterday, due to yesterday's partial replenishment superimposed today's aluminum price rise, today there are no significant signs of receiving goods.

Conclusion: the operation logic of aluminum price has not changed in the medium term, and the overall shock is strong from the basic point of view. With the gradual improvement of downstream consumption at the end of August, if there is no emergency, the situation of aluminum price in the later stage may be gradually clear.

(SMM Xuman 021 51595898)